Water FractalTier 1
at CMD Store Championahip
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
5-1-0
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
70.0%
avg ELO +10.7 per match
expected value
56.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1427
· median 1427
· range 1427–1427
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1186
Q3 1413
1558
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 25.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
